Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -535 JMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +4 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -11.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -9.8 (-13.8) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -10.2 (-14.2) | 156.2 (-4.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -10.0 (-14.0) | 158.0 (-6.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -8.3 (-12.3) | 156.2 (-4.2) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | JMU 67 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 91 – 71 ARST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | JMU 77 – 73 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#135) | -4.9 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#80) | -0.49 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#81) | -0.72 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#42) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.