Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JMU +100 ARST -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.9 (+4.1) | 145.8 (-16.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.3 (+5.3) | 144.9 (-15.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.7 (+5.7) | 146.5 (-17.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.1 (+6.1) | 148.0 (-19.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | JMU 78 – 74 ARST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 91 – 71 ARST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | JMU 77 – 73 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#143) | 5.6 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#143) | 1.40 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#136) | 2.12 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#123) | 0.581 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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