Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +210 JMU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -6.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -4.9 (+0.9) | 158.7 (-8.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -5.8 (+1.8) | 157.1 (-7.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -5.6 (+1.6) | 158.2 (-8.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -6.0 (+2.0) | 160.7 (-10.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | JMU 78 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JMU 67 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 91 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 32-4 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#178) | 9.3 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#234) | 1.73 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#210) | 1.89 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#258) | 0.539 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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