Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UML -125 UALB +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UML -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -1.8 (+10.2) | 147.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -2.2 (+9.8) | 149.1 (+4.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -1.9 (+10.1) | 150.3 (+3.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -2.2 (+9.8) | 148.1 (+5.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UML 81 – 76 UALB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UML 89 – 79 UALB |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UALB 90 – 88 UML |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UML 73 – 69 UALB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UML 104 – 95 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#317) | -10.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.27 (#333) | -2.06 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#336) | -2.24 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#286) | 0.431 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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