Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | UML -1000 UALB +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +9 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | UML -9.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -9.7 (-0.7) | 159.7 (+39.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -11.3 (-2.3) | 159.9 (+39.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -8.7 (+0.3) | 158.9 (+40.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -8.1 (+0.9) | 158.9 (+40.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UML 81 – 76 UALB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UML 89 – 79 UALB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UML 83 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UALB 90 – 88 UML |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UML 73 – 69 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -4.7 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#135) | -0.89 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#141) | -1.19 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.473 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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