Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UML -250 UALB +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +2 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -5.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -4.3 (-6.3) | 152.4 (+25.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -5.0 (-7.0) | 149.4 (+28.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -4.6 (-6.6) | 148.9 (+29.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -4.4 (-6.4) | 151.6 (+26.4) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UML 81 – 76 UALB |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UML 89 – 79 UALB |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UML 83 – 71 UALB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UML 73 – 69 UALB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UML 104 – 95 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#242) | -7.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#208) | -1.07 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#202) | -1.23 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#191) | 0.450 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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