Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -148 BAY +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -0.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -3.8 (+2.2) | 155.2 (-23.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -2.4 (+3.6) | 153.8 (-21.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -1.7 (+4.3) | 153.6 (-21.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -2.5 (+3.5) | 155.8 (-23.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TCU 105 – 102 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#50) | 15.1 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#74) | 2.00 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#62) | 2.86 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#167) | 0.555 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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