Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -218 TCU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +7 | 187 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -3.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.1 (-10.1) | 150.2 (+36.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.3 (-11.3) | 147.2 (+39.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.7 (-10.7) | 147.1 (+39.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.9 (-10.9) | 146.9 (+40.1) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TCU 105 – 102 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#44) | 12.0 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#53) | 1.75 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#51) | 2.76 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#83) | 0.541 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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