Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -138 BAY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -0.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-44.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -2.3 (-10.3) | 152.4 (-36.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -1.3 (-9.3) | 151.6 (-35.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -2.4 (-10.4) | 154.7 (-38.7) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -1.9 (-9.9) | 155.7 (-39.7) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TCU 105 – 102 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#22) | 17.0 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#31) | 2.24 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#32) | 2.80 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#71) | 0.603 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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