Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | TCU +160 BAY -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -4.3 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.3 (-0.7) | 139.2 (-20.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.5 (+0.5) | 139.3 (-20.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.4 (-0.6) | 138.9 (-19.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -1.9 (-1.1) | 140.0 (-21.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TCU 105 – 102 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#69) | 16.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#59) | 2.02 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#69) | 2.67 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#66) | 0.573 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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