Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -1000 TCU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -12.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -12.2 (-15.2) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -11.5 (-14.5) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -10.4 (-13.4) | 137.6 (+7.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.3 (-14.3) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TCU 105 – 102 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#17) | 8.5 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#32) | 0.85 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#33) | 1.04 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#27) | 0.535 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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