Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -200 TCU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +3 | 207 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -6.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (+48.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -7.2 (-10.2) | 148.6 (+58.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.6 (-8.6) | 150.9 (+56.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.5 (-8.5) | 150.4 (+56.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.2 (-9.2) | 152.3 (+54.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#11) | 13.7 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#27) | 1.86 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#28) | 2.33 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#26) | 0.556 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.1% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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