Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | ACU +285 UVU -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UVU -12.2 (+29.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVU -8.4 (+25.4) | 136.9 (+16.1) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVU -9.1 (+26.1) | 134.5 (+18.5) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVU -10.3 (+27.3) | 140.2 (+12.8) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVU -9.9 (+26.9) | 140.8 (+12.2) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UVU 74 – 67 ACU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UVU 68 – 55 ACU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UVU 73 – 60 ACU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UVU 64 – 53 ACU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVU 74 – 67 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#254) | 10.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#183) | 1.81 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#194) | 2.70 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#138) | 0.616 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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