Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +1000 DUKE -1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -15.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.2 (+6.2) | 155.7 (+22.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -11.2 (+7.2) | 153.0 (+25.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.3 (+6.3) | 152.5 (+25.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.7 (+6.7) | 154.1 (+23.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#107) | 24.3 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#166) | 4.34 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#169) | 7.27 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#174) | 0.674 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 43.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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