Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -2100 FSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +1 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.0 (-16.0) | 150.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.9 (-17.9) | 145.9 (+13.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.2 (-19.2) | 149.1 (+9.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -22.3 (-21.3) | 147.7 (+11.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-6 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 29.4 (#2) | 8.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.07 (#2) | 1.71 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.73 (#1) | 2.03 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.679 (#2) | 0.547 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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