Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +188 DUKE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -5.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.9 (-5.1) | 150.9 (-7.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.5 (-4.5) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -3.6 (-5.4) | 150.2 (-7.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.4 (-5.6) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#84) | 15.8 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#86) | 2.37 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#87) | 3.09 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#84) | 0.601 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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