Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +18 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -14.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.3 (+4.7) | 146.1 (+11.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.5 (+5.5) | 148.0 (+10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.1 (+4.9) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -13.0 (+5.0) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#11) | 5.8 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#16) | 1.09 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.38 (#5) | 1.00 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#18) | 0.538 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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