Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -7500 FSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +35 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -23.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.9 (+17.1) | 151.2 (+13.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -19.2 (+15.8) | 149.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -21.6 (+13.4) | 149.7 (+15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -22.3 (+12.7) | 149.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 10-1 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 27.1 (#2) | 6.8 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#5) | 0.88 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#4) | 1.12 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#5) | 0.522 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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