Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -2000 FSU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -16.2 (+2.8) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -15.6 (+3.4) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.0 (+3.0) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -16.4 (+2.6) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | DUKE 88 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-0 | 5-11 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#21) | -2.8 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#20) | -1.14 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#22) | -1.34 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#13) | 0.451 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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