Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -118 UNC -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +14 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -2.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -3.0 (+11.0) | 147.0 (+33.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.5 (+11.5) | 144.9 (+35.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.2 (+11.8) | 146.7 (+33.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -2.4 (+11.6) | 149.9 (+30.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | UNC 82 – 67 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#30) | 16.8 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#24) | 3.78 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#30) | 5.33 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#19) | 0.652 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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