Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -290 SMU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -4.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.1 (+11.9) | 161.6 (-12.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.8 (+11.2) | 162.3 (-13.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.7 (+11.3) | 164.1 (-15.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.7 (+12.3) | 162.7 (-13.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SMU 97 – 83 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#40) | 12.5 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#41) | 2.23 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#45) | 2.98 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#24) | 0.591 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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