Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | OU -298 MISS +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | OU -6.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -6.1 (+9.9) | 143.4 (+12.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -7.4 (+8.6) | 140.7 (+15.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -7.0 (+9.0) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -6.3 (+9.7) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | MISS 87 – 84 OU |
| Nov 27, 2022 | OU 59 – 55 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#63) | 7.4 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#34) | 0.61 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#35) | 1.15 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#113) | 0.509 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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