Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -485 MSST +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 199 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -10.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -8.3 (-11.3) | 151.9 (+47.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -8.8 (-11.8) | 152.6 (+46.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -8.6 (-11.6) | 153.4 (+45.6) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -7.4 (-10.4) | 152.5 (+46.5) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | TEX 87 – 82 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#48) | 5.3 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#94) | 0.98 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#77) | 1.23 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#219) | 0.539 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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