Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -320 TEX +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +5 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -5.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.8 (-11.8) | 155.7 (+13.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -7.6 (-12.6) | 153.1 (+15.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.9 (-11.9) | 150.1 (+18.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -6.5 (-11.5) | 152.9 (+16.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | MSST 101 – 98 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#31) | 12.8 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#10) | 1.95 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#13) | 2.40 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#21) | 0.531 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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