He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Southeastern Conference · Humphrey Coliseum · March 5, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -6.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money MSST -320 / TEX +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total MSST win
Actual TEX +5 169 Lost
Massey MSST -5.3 (-10.3)
Massey Totals 152.0 (+17.0)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline ML MSST -6.8 (-11.8) 155.7 (+13.3) 74%
Baseline Plus ML MSST -7.6 (-12.6) 153.1 (+15.9) 71%
Efficiency Plus ML MSST -6.9 (-11.9) 150.1 (+18.9) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -6.5 (-11.5) 152.9 (+16.1) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 3, 2026 MSST 10198 TEX

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MSST TEX
Overall 21-13 19-16
Conference 8-10 6-12
Home 10-5 11-7
Away 6-5 4-6
Neutral 5-3 4-3
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 79.5 78.5
Avg Pts Against 74.2 72.6
Massey 14.9 (#31) 12.8 (#44)
Bradley-Terry 3.20 (#10) 1.95 (#52)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.83 (#13) 2.40 (#51)
RPI 0.612 (#21) 0.531 (#118)
Shooting & Four Factors MSST TEX
FG% 45.4% 46.5%
3PT% 31.2% 35.8%
REB / G 38.4 35.4
OREB / G 13.1 10.1
AST / TO 1.40 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.0% 52.9%
TOV% 15.5% 14.4%
ORB% 34.8% 29.8%
FT Rate 22.0% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 17.2%
DRB% 70.5% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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