Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +750 ALST -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +20 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -11.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -10.0 (-10.0) | 144.6 (+13.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -9.9 (-10.1) | 143.4 (+14.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -10.2 (-9.8) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -9.8 (-10.2) | 146.1 (+11.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ALST 54 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-9 | 5-4 |
| Away | 1-18 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -23.8 (#364) | -8.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.22 (#363) | -1.39 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.45 (#364) | -1.98 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#347) | 0.452 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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