We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Southwestern Athletic Conference · R.W. Harrison HPER Complex · February 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALST -18.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money MVSU +1500 / ALST -5000
Model Predictions
Spread Total MVSU win
Actual ALST +23 135 Lost
Massey ALST -19.6 (-3.4)
Massey Totals 139.4 (-4.4)
Bradley-Terry 6%
Weighted B-T 4%
Efficiency Plus ML ALST -14.3 (-8.7) 135.4 (-0.4) 12%
Baseline Tuned ML ALST -14.9 (-8.1) 134.2 (+0.8) 13%
Baseline ML ALST -15.8 (-7.2) 132.3 (+2.7) 11%
Baseline Plus ML ALST -17.4 (-5.6) 134.7 (+0.3) 11%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 17, 2026 ALST 9255 MVSU
Jan 3, 2026 ALST 8969 MVSU
Jan 4, 2025 ALST 8455 MVSU
Feb 20, 2024 ALST 6146 MVSU
Jan 7, 2024 ALST 5451 MVSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MVSU ALST
Overall 3-28 20-16
Conference 1-17 12-6
Home 2-9 8-3
Away 1-19 6-10
Neutral 0-0 6-3
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L9 L1
Avg Pts For 52.4 71.9
Avg Pts Against 82.3 72.7
Massey -31.1 (#364) -8.3 (#297)
Bradley-Terry -4.62 (#363) -1.31 (#293)
W. Bradley-Terry -6.02 (#363) -2.05 (#316)
RPI 0.364 (#358) 0.446 (#278)
Shooting & Four Factors MVSU ALST
FG% 37.3% 40.1%
3PT% 26.4% 32.7%
REB / G 27.0 35.0
OREB / G 7.7 11.3
AST / TO 0.44 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.3% 47.2%
TOV% 25.1% 13.4%
ORB% 23.4% 27.8%
FT Rate 21.8% 21.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 59.1% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 17.9%
DRB% 60.2% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.1% 29.0%

Game Analysis

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