Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +1500 ALST -5000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +23 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -19.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -17.4 (-5.6) | 134.7 (+0.3) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -14.3 (-8.7) | 135.4 (-0.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -14.9 (-8.1) | 134.2 (+0.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -15.8 (-7.2) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ALST 54 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 2-9 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-19 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 52.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -31.1 (#364) | -8.3 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.62 (#363) | -1.31 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.02 (#363) | -2.05 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#358) | 0.446 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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