Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -1600 MVSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +15 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -19.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -15.1 (-0.1) | 129.3 (-22.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -13.9 (+1.1) | 131.8 (-24.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -14.6 (+0.4) | 128.9 (-21.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -15.1 (-0.1) | 131.2 (-24.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ALST 54 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-5 | 1-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#300) | -24.3 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#285) | -5.01 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#293) | -6.60 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#261) | 0.361 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.