Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ALST -10000 MVSU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +29 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -28.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -22.1 (+6.9) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -18.9 (+10.1) | 142.7 (-3.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -21.8 (+7.2) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -23.7 (+5.3) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ALST 54 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#251) | -29.0 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#259) | -2.68 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#265) | -3.95 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#256) | 0.463 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 24.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 62.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 58.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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