Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -2100 MVSU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +37 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -18.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -15.3 (+21.7) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -14.0 (+23.0) | 139.3 (+7.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -15.3 (+21.7) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -15.0 (+22.0) | 139.1 (+7.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ALST 54 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-4 | 2-9 |
| Away | 4-15 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#317) | -25.9 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#316) | -5.13 (#365) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#307) | -6.70 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#331) | 0.320 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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