Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +500 ALST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +3 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -14.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -12.7 (+9.7) | 127.5 (-22.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -11.2 (+8.2) | 127.4 (-22.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -11.7 (+8.7) | 129.6 (-24.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -10.5 (+7.5) | 124.2 (-19.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-30 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 1-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-22 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 55.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -23.7 (#363) | -5.0 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#345) | -0.58 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#348) | -0.63 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#261) | 0.514 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 27.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.8% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 27.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.2% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 59.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.