Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +164 KU -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | KU -2.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.2 (+5.8) | 144.4 (+11.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -0.7 (+6.7) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -1.4 (+7.4) | 145.0 (+11.0) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -1.1 (+7.1) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | KU 98 – 94 UCF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | KU 91 – 87 UCF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | KU 99 – 48 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UCF 65 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#47) | 18.5 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#17) | 3.29 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#20) | 4.74 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.657 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 41.8% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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