Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +175 KU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +51 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | KU -5.0 (-46.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -2.1 (-48.9) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -2.8 (-48.2) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -1.7 (-49.3) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -2.5 (-48.5) | 146.7 (+0.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UCF 81 – 75 KU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | KU 98 – 94 UCF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | KU 91 – 87 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UCF 65 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#81) | 15.8 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#39) | 2.79 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#45) | 3.70 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#29) | 0.649 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | KU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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