Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | KU -700 UCF +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +4 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | KU -10.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+36.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -8.9 (-4.9) | 155.5 (+36.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -9.2 (-5.2) | 151.8 (+40.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -9.4 (-5.4) | 151.8 (+40.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -10.1 (-6.1) | 157.8 (+34.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UCF 81 – 75 KU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | KU 91 – 87 UCF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | KU 99 – 48 UCF |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UCF 65 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#16) | 7.4 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#34) | 1.47 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#34) | 1.68 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#21) | 0.540 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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