Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -1450 AF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +28 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -12.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-42.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.6 (+19.4) | 140.7 (-34.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -12.6 (+15.4) | 140.3 (-34.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -9.3 (+18.7) | 142.0 (-36.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -9.3 (+18.7) | 140.3 (-34.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNLV 72 – 43 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-15 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#182) | -9.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#202) | -1.85 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#214) | -2.40 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#199) | 0.410 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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