Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | AF +260 UNLV -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +19 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -4.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -6.1 (-12.9) | 132.4 (+2.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -5.7 (-13.3) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -6.6 (-12.4) | 132.6 (+2.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -5.3 (-13.7) | 133.6 (+1.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNLV 72 – 43 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-13 | 12-5 |
| Away | 0-14 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#274) | 2.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#327) | 0.78 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#314) | 1.14 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#347) | 0.523 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.