Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -1000 AF +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -13.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -12.9 (-3.9) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -12.6 (-3.6) | 130.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -12.2 (-3.2) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -12.3 (-3.3) | 132.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNLV 72 – 43 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-5 | 3-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#95) | -8.7 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#86) | -2.21 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#81) | -2.40 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#99) | 0.409 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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