Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1000 UNLV -1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +25 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -13.4 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -11.8 (-13.2) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -13.1 (-11.9) | 147.8 (+9.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -11.5 (-13.5) | 147.7 (+9.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -13.3 (-11.7) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNLV 72 – 43 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-15 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#346) | 2.0 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#335) | 0.48 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#321) | 0.55 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#312) | 0.519 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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