Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -1600 AF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -15.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -12.2 (+12.8) | 133.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -13.4 (+11.6) | 132.2 (-3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -12.3 (+12.7) | 132.7 (-3.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -12.3 (+12.7) | 134.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
| Feb 22, 2024 | UNLV 72 – 43 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 12-5 | 3-13 |
| Away | 5-7 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#105) | -7.7 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#104) | -2.26 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#89) | -2.45 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#125) | 0.412 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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