Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | AF +188 UNLV -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +29 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -6.3 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -8.4 (-20.6) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -6.9 (-22.1) | 134.7 (-19.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -6.8 (-22.2) | 137.4 (-22.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -7.6 (-21.4) | 137.9 (-22.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-12 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#234) | 5.9 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#283) | 1.17 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#257) | 1.26 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#284) | 0.564 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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