Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | APSU -675 JAX +490 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -16.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -10.6 (-7.6) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -11.5 (-8.5) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -12.2 (-9.2) | 137.9 (+1.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -13.5 (-10.5) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | APSU 65 – 61 JAX |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JAX 68 – 44 APSU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JAX 63 – 43 APSU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | JAX 60 – 56 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#148) | -11.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#193) | -1.21 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#205) | -2.01 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#160) | 0.460 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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