Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +130 JAX -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -1.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -4.1 (+0.1) | 127.0 (-11.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -2.3 (-1.7) | 129.6 (-13.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -2.2 (-1.8) | 129.0 (-13.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -2.1 (-1.9) | 127.8 (-11.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | APSU 65 – 61 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2026 | APSU 71 – 68 JAX |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JAX 68 – 44 APSU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JAX 63 – 43 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#329) | -4.0 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#320) | -0.21 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#326) | -0.25 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#313) | 0.497 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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