Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +220 APSU -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -7.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -5.1 (+1.1) | 139.5 (-13.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -7.2 (+3.2) | 139.0 (-13.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -7.3 (+3.3) | 139.3 (-13.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -6.9 (+2.9) | 140.7 (-14.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | APSU 71 – 68 JAX |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JAX 68 – 44 APSU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | JAX 63 – 43 APSU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | JAX 60 – 56 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#303) | 1.2 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#307) | 0.67 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#300) | 0.58 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#290) | 0.547 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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