Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +150 APSU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +20 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -3.4 (+23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -1.2 (+21.2) | 139.8 (-33.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -2.5 (+22.5) | 141.3 (-35.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -2.8 (+22.8) | 142.6 (-36.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -2.5 (+22.5) | 141.9 (-35.9) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | APSU 65 – 61 JAX |
| Jan 3, 2026 | APSU 71 – 68 JAX |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JAX 68 – 44 APSU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | JAX 60 – 56 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#320) | -2.8 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#271) | -0.65 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#281) | -0.85 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#275) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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