Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +102 DAV -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +6 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -3.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -3.0 (-3.0) | 141.8 (-23.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -1.5 (-4.5) | 139.6 (-21.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.7 (-3.3) | 139.9 (-21.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -2.7 (-3.3) | 141.8 (-23.8) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAV 76 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#255) | 1.6 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#233) | 0.25 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#257) | 0.54 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#230) | 0.520 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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