Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -250 JOES +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -4.5 (-3.5) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -5.6 (-4.6) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -4.7 (-3.7) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -4.0 (-3.0) | 143.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -1.0 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#181) | -0.26 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#145) | -0.35 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#171) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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