Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DAV +105 JOES -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -1.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -0.6 (-17.6) | 148.2 (-9.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -0.6 (-17.6) | 145.7 (-6.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -1.3 (-18.3) | 146.3 (-7.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -1.4 (-18.4) | 147.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAV 76 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#114) | 5.6 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#111) | 0.44 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#99) | 0.50 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.521 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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