Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -250 DAV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +18 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -4.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -4.1 (+13.9) | 140.6 (+19.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -2.8 (+15.2) | 140.9 (+19.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -5.0 (+13.0) | 137.5 (+22.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.6 (+13.4) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAV 76 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#100) | 3.9 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#108) | 0.38 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#112) | 0.72 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#107) | 0.518 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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