Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -130 JOES +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -5.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -4.7 (-7.7) | 132.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -3.7 (-6.7) | 134.2 (+2.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -3.8 (-6.8) | 130.8 (+6.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -4.5 (-7.5) | 131.5 (+5.5) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAV 76 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#112) | 1.4 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#108) | 0.76 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#108) | 0.82 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#90) | 0.542 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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