Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -162 DAV +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -1.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.6 (+11.4) | 131.0 (-3.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.4 (+11.6) | 129.8 (-1.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.3 (+12.3) | 130.3 (-2.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -0.7 (+12.7) | 130.5 (-2.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
| Feb 18, 2023 | DAV 76 – 75 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#133) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#96) | 0.67 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#106) | 0.82 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#75) | 0.542 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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