The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.4 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Penn State -12.7 151.1 16% 73–65 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -4.5 141.4 29% 66–65 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +9.9 133.7 86% 45–49 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton +0.7 149.5 54% 86–64 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -5.7 146.7 23% 89–73 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +4.9 145.5 73% 58–78 ✓
Colorado State @ Grand Canyon +1.6 141.3 67% 70–60 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +8.2 140.2 78% 73–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +10.1 134.5 86% 68–77 ✓
Florida @ Missouri -5.3 147.5 33% 74–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah -11.4 131.7 15% 86–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +0.5 156.7 55% 66–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +7.4 152.6 78% 82–95 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.2 136.6 61% 107–110 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +3.0 135.4 62% 73–83 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -0.6 132.9 50% 83–75 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +4.6 134.9 70% 54–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -1.0 132.5 44% 78–82 ✗
Manhattan @ Merrimack +6.2 140.3 75% 66–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -6.4 151.4 30% 66–69 ✗
UAB @ South Florida +7.2 154.7 79% 109–106 ✗
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +10.9 154.3 84% 88–92 ✓
New Haven @ Central Connecticut +5.7 131.5 72% 61–72 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +19.5 139.8 91% 57–73 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.2 151.4 84% 71–74 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -11.4 155.3 15% 81–77 ✓
Siena @ Rider -12.2 129.8 14% 74–65 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +10.9 140.6 86% 69–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara -6.1 134.8 26% 83–75 ✓
Iona @ Marist +2.2 139.1 63% 38–83 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -5.9 146.3 27% 74–55 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst -0.1 137.9 49% 60–74 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Delaware -3.8 143.9 36% 52–67 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +10.6 135.5 87% 69–78 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +4.5 147.3 70% 67–68 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +2.4 136.3 61% 59–66 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +5.6 144.9 73% 72–74 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +5.0 155.4 70% 73–96 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +8.8 132.9 84% 61–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Missouri State +0.0 132.3 50% 82–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -9.8 125.6 16% 62–48 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas -8.8 136.2 20% 67–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +1.8 141.4 61% 79–94 ✓
Stonehill @ Wagner +9.5 139.8 85% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis -3.7 134.7 29% 82–85 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International +8.2 146.6 81% 64–76 ✓
Bradley @ Murray State +8.2 155.0 80% 66–86 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +9.9 152.2 83% 68–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.